feature

Forward return

For each EMA-cross event, measures close-to-close return over a horizon, then publishes a distribution.

What it studies

Distribution of forward returns after ema-cross-up events.

Key decisions

Piece	Why it matters
`ctx.params.horizonMin`	Trader-tunable look-ahead without editing code.
`ctx.candles.forward({ minutes })`	One bar at/after the horizon (see Code IntelliSense for other shapes).
Entry from `payload.close`	Must match what the definition emitted.
`kind: "distribution"`	Result UI expects an array of numeric samples.

Full script

meta({
  name: "EMA cross forward return",
  kind: "study",
  params: {
    horizonMin: { type: "number", def: 60, min: 1, max: 1440 },
  },
});

flows.declare({
  slug: "ema-cross-up",
  as: "xup",
});

results.declare({
  id: "fwd_ret",
  kind: "distribution",
  title: "Forward returns",
});

results.declare({
  id: "n",
  kind: "metric",
  title: "Samples",
});

export function onEvent(ctx) {
  if (ctx.event.flow !== "xup") return;

  const entry = Number(ctx.event.payload.close);
  if (!Number.isFinite(entry) || entry === 0) return;

  const after = ctx.candles.forward({ minutes: ctx.params.horizonMin });
  if (!after || after.close == null) return;

  const ret = (after.close - entry) / entry;
  ctx.collect("rets", ret);
}

export function onFinish(ctx) {
  const rets = ctx.collected("rets");
  ctx.publish("n", { value: rets.length, label: "Samples" });
  ctx.publish("fwd_ret", rets);
}

Heavy per-event candle work can hit study budgets — see Budgets and limits.

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